I know horse racing references are overdone, but I’m rusty. Thankfully, Louisville City is off to a better start than myself. In case you missed it, I’ve adjusted my writing approach this season and will be recapping matches in groups with a bit more focus on the big picture. So let’s not waste anymore time and dive right into it!
03/08/2025 – CHSvLOU: ★★★
Taking on the Charleston Battery away from home for the first match of the season was as big of a test for Louisville City. This matchup could have post-season seeding repercussions if both squads are vying for the top of the East, as many expect. Thankfully, the boys in purple managed to walk out of Patriots Point with the win. Defense was the highlight of Morados’ performance. The Battery were limited to only two on-target shots and their lone goal was a fantastic freekick. However, the sub-par officiating can’t be overlooked. LouCity was the beneficiary of a questionable red card against Charleston. Fortune was also on Louisville’s side, with the second goal which saw the CHS goalkeeper somehow allow in Adrien Perez’s shot at the near post he was covering. If he faced that shot another 99 times, he would have stopped all of them. That goal ended up being the difference maker. Those are three very important points no matter how you slice it.
Between the win over Charleston and Birmingham’s dud of a home opener, there was reason for confidence for Louisville City heading into match two of 2025. The Legion lost both meeting to Louisville 5-0 and 4-1 last season and, with most of LouCity’s roster having returned playing the same style, it felt like a similar result would be on the horizon. Unfortunately, the match ended as a 1-1 draw. “I didn’t think there was any urgency to go and want to win the game,” Coach Danny Cruz stated after the match. “I thought there was a lack of communication on the field. The intensity wasn’t at the level is needed to be.” Louisville took the lead at 30’ after having felt close to scoring for a while. But Birmingham scored one of the own right before halftime and held off the reigning Players’ Shield winners. The boys in purple out-shot and ever out possessed BHM (despite their MO being low possession) but lacked the difference-making goal they were able to find in Charleston. It felt more a product of LouCity not achieving their potential moreso than the Legion playing up to the level of one of the league’s top teams.
After starting the season on the road, Louisville City played their first home match of 2025 in the most convincing result to date. Two goals scored before factoring in a BIG point-blank miss by Jansen Wilson and a blocked PK taken by Phillip Goodrum. The 2.55 xG is the best thus far in the current campaign with Ray Serrano bagging his second goal of the season and Taylor Davila earning his first. The boys in purple kept a clean sheet, but the visiting Loudoun squad was not without their chances. Their 11 shots with three on-target was good for an xG of 1.44, just 0.01 shy of what the Legion put up against LOU in the previous match. Coach Cruz saw it as a pleasing improvement over their last outing; “The guys did what we asked them to do, and most importantly I thought the response from last week with the lack of intensity and energy — it was there tonight.” Between the beautiful weather, a solid crowd just a touch shy of 10k, and a full 90’ minute performance much closer to expectations than the BHM draw, it was a good outing that helps to keep Louisville positioned near the top of the pack as the standings begin to slowly parse out the haves and have-nots.
Although the season is still young, Louisville City has shown that their winning formula from last season continues to be a problem for other teams to overcome. At 2.33 points per game, LouCity is tied with Detroit City for top of the East and only trails San Antonio in the broader USL picture. Still loads of soccer to be played, but the early results have been promising.
Louisville’s attack is once again near the top of the pack. Over 13 shots per game (4th) with 1.67 goals per game (trailing only 6 other teams at 2.00/game) and an expected goals per game rate of 1.52 (T-4th). It’s too early to make broad conclusions on these numbers, but they are getting the job done thus far. Ray Serrano has not missed a beat from his stellar 2024 season and has scored twice in three matches with Adrien Perez, Manny Perez, and Taylor Davila all with one each as well. The biggest concern is a name notably absent from this list; Phillip Goodrum. All eyes turned to Phil after Wilson Harris’ offseason departure. Especially considering that there is external concern about a lack of depth. Despite being a proven talent in the USL Championship, he’s has a bit of a cold start. Even in the last two friendlies (against LEX and Knoxville), he failed to score. He was setup to squash this narrative late in the Loudoun game, but his PK attempt was blocked. I’m personally not all that concerned, but it is a situation to monitor. With all that said, it’s not as if he has been just a body on the pitch. He has wholeheartedly embraced the ask to press and his defensive actions has helped to set his peers up for opportunities.
Defense has been solid as well. LouCity has allowed 11.67 shots against per game (8th most) but only averages 0.67 goals conceded per game (T-3rd fewest) at an expected goals against rate of 1.25 per game (10th fewest). It’s more likely that the attack will be vying for league-leading given the aggressive style of play but a strong defensive presence will be a continued point of emphasis from the staff to ensure their full body of work keeps them near the top of the standings. Like last season, Sean Totsch, Arturo Ordonez, and Kyle Adams anchor the back line with a rotating cast in the wingback positions. Elijah Wynder’s move to the MLS has paved the way for Zach Duncan and he has proven to be an aggressive presence in the midfield who will win the ball or fight like hell to slow down the opposition. We’ve not gotten to see much of Kevon Lambert yet, but his size alone gives the coaching staff another route to go should Duncan’s size be a problem in particular matchups. Curious to see how the midfield operated with Lambert/Davila.
While it is too early to hyper-focus on broad stats, I did want to share some numbers that will serve to add context to Louisville’s 2025 averages as the season progresses. Below are the USL averages for 2021 to present, along with LouCity’s offensive and defensive stats for the same years. These will help us to understand how this team is doing beyond comparing to other team’s current season performance.
Overall, lots to be please about. Louisville is in their rightful spot in the top half of the table and the team seems poised to be about as scary as they were last year. With one big test out of the way (vsCHS), it will be particularly interesting to see how they perform against other contenders and rivals. Matches with the likes of Tampa, Lexington, Indy, and Rhode Island have yet to happen (check this out if you’re interested in the matches I circled on the calendar). It will be an intriguing season to watch!
Comments