A home win coming off a bye week is exactly what was needed to shake a few sub-optimal results and get a winning streak going. But, one win isn’t a streak. Louisville City will be looking to secure all three points on the road against Hartford Athletic to make it two wins in a row. LouCity is a perfect 3-0 all-time against Hartford, with the last win in 2021 being an exciting 4-2 match (one that was heavily featured in the What Are Expected Goals (xG)? piece).
Hartford currently finds themselves 11th in the East with 12 points and a -6 goal differential. FiveThirtyEight has them on the outside of the playoff picture with only an 18% chance to make the postseason. They do enter the match on a positive with a 3-0 win over ATL Jr. The Athletic have allowed 1.5 goals a match (16th) and scored 1.1 goals a match (21st). While they are defensively performing as expected, they have been quite unlucky on the scoring side of things. With 3.9 shots on target per match (16th) and 19 big chances per match (19th), they have some room for improvement from expected to reality.
Players worth highlighting include Joel Johnson, Prince Saydee, and Conor McGlynn. Johnson, a long-time Charlotte man, leads his team with four goals, finding 0.5 shots on target per 90 (3rd). Saydee has contributed one goal and a team-leading three assists. He has made 2.1 shots per 90 (2nd) and 0.7 shots on target per 90 (2nd) along with a team-high three big chances created. McGlynn is entering year three with Hartford. He leads in several categories for his squad, including player rating (7.09), accurate passes per 90 (45.9), accurate long balls per 90 (5.0), and successful tackles per 90 (2.2).
Although I’d expect Hartford to improve their standings rather than drop further down the table, they are still the underdog against the mighty Louisville City. FiveThirtyEight is giving Morados a 45% chance to win with the home team only a 28% chance. This is a match you can enter feeling confident. It helps that it is likely expected that Kyle Morton will be back in the mix (although Danny Faundez did an excellent job taking over in his absence). Let’s see City string together some wins!
Parting Thoughts
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