How’s It Going? Part 2 - An Assessment Of Louisville City’s 2024 Season-To-Date

Louisville City is past the halfway point of the 2024 season and boasts a league-leading 12 wins in 18 matches. The early signs of brilliance noted in How’s It Going? Part 1 has largely continued as the boys in purple work to solidify a playoff spot and quite possibly the regular season title. However, it has not been all sunshine and rainbows. The regular season is long and grueling. LouCity has recently come off a challenging stretch of four out of five on the road and an accumulation of injuries has begun to test the roster’s depth. And even at the rate the squad has accumulated points, challengers are nipping at their heels for the top spot in both the Eastern Conference as well as the league as a whole. With the team beginning the back half of the schedule, it is time for us to take a step back and review in detail how the campaign has gone thus far.

Since Part 1, the team has won six, drawn twice, and lost three times in league play. The three losses all occurred in the last five-game stretch. This includes a late Tampa Bay game-winner that turned what had appeared to be a draw into a loss, the stunning 5-2 loss at home to newcomers Rhode Island, and a tightly fought match against the Oakland Roots. As noted above, most of the recent matches have been outside of Louisville and this period saw important players such as Adrien Perez, Kyle Adams, and Jorge Gonzalez sidelined with injury.

On the more positive side of things, there have been some great wins. The 3-0 win over Orange County in May was a great rebound from the team’s Open Cup exit. A hot Detroit City replicated their exit in last season’s playoffs with a multi-goal loss to LouCity. And the Birmingham Legion became the unfortunate punching bag for an angry LOU team coming off their shocking RI loss. This match was also notable for being their biggest road win, an aspect of their performance this season that has been under the microscope by fans this year.

On the individual performance front, there has been a lot to keep fans happy. Elijah Wynder has turned heads this season with his growth and contributions to one of the league’s best squads. John Morrissey of USL Tactics raves about Elijah and pitches his case for MVP in his recent midseason awards piece. Later in that same piece, he called out Ray Serrano for being the only player with more than four expected goals and four expected assists, earning his selection for Young Player of the Year. Just like in Part 1, Ray leads the team with his player rating of 7.41 as he continues his memorable 2024 season, filling the large void left by an injured Brian Ownby. Wilson Harris’ rate of scoring has slowed a tad, but his total of 11 is still good enough to land him 2nd in the league. Adrien Perez, despite having been out for over a month as of this writing, still holds the 3rd most assists (5) in the league. From the invaluable contributions of Jake Morris, the phenomenal midfield presence of Taylor Davila, and the increasing importance of Aiden McFadden, I could go on for quite a while praising the individual contributions that has helped make this season a blast to watch.

Now how about we wade into the waters of statistics and see how the numbers have shifted for Louisville City compared to the rest of the field. A huge thank you to American Soccer Analyst for making this data available for nerds like myself to tinker with.

Offense

Louisville City was already on a wicked goal-scoring pace to begin the season and their goals for per game (GF/G) has only increased since. They are now up to a whopping 2.5 GF/G with the next closest being Charleston’s 1.83. This isn’t a fluke either. Following the trendline of GF/G and expected goals per game (xGF/G), they are right where you would expect them to be in relation to the teams. Only TBR (2.4) has a higher xGF/G than Louisville (2.22) but they have not been able to translate as many into actual goals.

Their play at Lynn Family Stadium has been a big factor in this ridiculous average. In Butchertown, they are averaging 3.88 GF/G. Away from home, it has been a more modest rate of 1.4 GF/G with the likes of IND (1.78), SA (1.75), DET (1.63), and NC (1.43) currently higher on the road.

There is always some variation between actual goals and expected goals (xG) which I have simplified as “luck”. If xG is viewed as a reflection of a team’s actual quality, you’ll find LOU as the prime example of a team who is both good and lucky

Louisville is finding 16.28 shots per game (ShtF/G) for a rate of 6.51 shots per goal (ShtF/GF) and 0.137 expected goals per shot (xGF/ShtF). Relative to the rest of the league, they are 2nd for ShtF/G, 1st for ShtF/GF, and tied for 2nd for xGF/ShtF. TBR is the lone team ahead of them for shots and xG per shot.

Defense

Morados’ offense is clearly their strength, as their defensive performances are much more down to earth. They are 9th for goals against per game (GA/G) with 1.17, just outside the upper 3rd of the league. They allow 10.5 shots per game (ShtA/G) (5th) at a rate of 0.139 expected goals per shot against them (xGA/ShtA). This is one to keep an eye on as they have one of the highest xGA/ShtA. They allow few shots but when they do happen, they are averaging of higher quality.

LouCity is actually averaging slightly more GA/G at home (1.25) than on the road (1.10), however, that anomaly of a RI loss has helped to skew that number. It is fairly even an inconsequential with that outlier factored out. And like with GF, the fall in the good and luck end of the spectrum in terms of GA. They have more areas of opportunity here. However, they are still averaging favorably compared to the rest of the field.

Points/Standings

Coach Danny Cruz’s team has held a vice-grip on 1st place since taking it back from CHS (who had only taken it by virtue of more games played) but things are tight from a points-per-game (Pts/G) perspective. New Mexico now leads the league with 2.13 Pts/G with LouCity close behind with 2.11 (as of 07/11/2024). NM is like Louisville and has seen a lot of success at home. They hold an average of 3.00 Pts/G with Louisville trailing with 2.63 Pts/G. It's more contested when looking at away Pts/G. SAC leads with 1.89 Pts/G followed by IND (1.89), and BHM, CHS, and LOU, all tied in 3rd with 1.70 Pts/G.

The boys in purple hold the 3rd highest expected points per game (xPts/G) with 1.84 with Eastern Conference foes TBR and CHS just a touch higher.

The below standings are slightly more recent than the data being assessed above, but the big picture is still the same; Louisville City largely controls their own fate. They hold a one-point lead over the Battery with a game in hand. Of the team’s remaining matches is a home encounter with their ECF foes. Given Morados’ home form, they could seize that opportunity to more firmly solidify themselves as the best in the East with a win in that match. As alluded to above, New Mexico does have a chance to jump LOU for the regular season title. Winning their two games in hand would see them two points ahead of LouCity.

2022/2023 vs 2024

Sometimes, a team’s performance needs some external context. Comparing the current squad to teams of years past can help to understand how well the team is doing.

2023 was a “down” year for Louisville in the statistical sense. Compared to the 20-match Part 2 for 2023, this year’s team is scoring a whopping 1.6 more goals per match. That is an increase of almost 0.2 from earlier this season. Defensively, things have slipped slightly. Goals against per match are now up just over 0.1 goals per match. Not terrible, but the trend is less favorable than the ~-0.4 they saw earlier in the year. Points are what matters most and there they are trending 0.66 points per match higher than 2023.

2022 is going to be closer to the standard in which this team should be judged. It was one of the team’s most dominant years in terms of regular-season performance. 16 games into that year, LouCity was scoring 1.93 goals per match, conceding 0.87 goals per match, and averaging a clean 2.00 points from each game. 18 matches into 2024, the output has been even higher. Almost 0.6 more goals per match, with just over 0.1 more points per outing. Defensively, the 2024 team is trailing; 0.3 more goals allowed per match. As previously noted, their most recent run has not helped. Between injuries and it being a more road-heavy portion of the season, it is somewhat understandable. However, that context will likely be glossed over when seasons are compared to one another in a broad context. Should this team want to usurp 2022 as the standard without much debate, it is an area in which they will want to see improved upon.

Looking Ahead

For as great as this season has been, there is still plenty of work to be done. To paraphrase Coach Cruz, you have not won anything halfway through a season. All the praise and statistical dominance can be undone by a weak second half of the season. There are still big matches to be played. These are the ones I will have my eyes on closely:

LOUvCOS – 07/19 – After a week off and getting a chance to return home, can the boys in purple rebound after their loss in CA and take down a good but not great Colorado Springs team?
NMvLOU – 08/03 – Want a regular season title? Then this is considered a must-win. New Mexico is the only team who controls their fate more than Louisville. Going into their house and taking all three would be more than a statement. Huge opportunity for both teams in this one.
LOUvSAC – 08/10 – If the West has a LouCity-equivalent, there is a case for SAC (alongside PHX). They are right in the mix for top of the West and we owe them one after last year.
LOUvCHS – 08/17 – If you have been paying attention the past year or two, this does not need any introduction. Louisville’s biggest foe in the East this season. Get the win here and it will go a long way to solidifying their spot at the top of the conference.
TULvLOU – 09/14 – This is on here less for competitive reasons and more so for external contextual reasons. Mario Sanchez, now the coach at Tulsa, wore many hats at Soccer Holdings. This will be the first time he will be coaching against Louisville. With former LouCity legend, Luke Spencer, at his side.
INDvLOU – 10/05 – A late-season LIPAFC has drama written all over it. Especially since Indy isn’t all too far out of the mix, currently 4th and seven points back from Louisville.
LOUvTBR – 10/12 – No LouCity fan wants to see Tampa late in the schedule. Unless LOU has distanced themselves from the pack by this point, this one will be a high-stakes match with a lot on the line.
LOUvPHX – 10/26 – Last game of the regular season. Hopefully, it won’t have any meaningful impact on the boys in purple’s playoff fate. If it does, the Phoenix Rising has the historical motivation to want to derail Louisville’s plans even if it doesn’t move the needle for them.

Summary

If you are looking for the TL;DR, here it is. Louisville City has by and large kept up the phenomenal pace set early in the season. There have been some misses and barriers to success, but they are still on track to potentially win the regular season and have home field through the playoffs. With many matches left in the season, they will need to keep their foot on the gas and keep the motivational fires hot. The team of champions from years past has largely turned over, and it is time for a new crop of players to cement their legacy with Louisville City. Only time can tell how late into the year we might be able to catch a match at Lynn Family Stadium. But at this pace, we seem to be on track for many more celebrations before it's all said and done.